Platinum provided a decent return over the years, following a larger industrial demand. However, the price still lags behind precious yellow metal, which could make investors cautious.
Platinum Price Trend: A Sign Of Stability
According to a study of each month's platinum price movements over the previous 25 years, January and February have typically seen the strongest performance from the platinum price, followed by December.
Historically, the three-month period between December and February has yielded an average compound return of 8.6%. On the other hand, the cyclical nature of platinum's price efficiency has been less impressive during the second half of the year before increasing once more in the last few months.
Platinum Mine Supply Outlook
Seasonal mine supply is frequently cited as the cause of platinum's price timing. Seasonal variation in refined mine supply is caused by South African miners returning from their annual vacation, which lowers results in the first quarter. The first quarter's worldwide mined platinum supply is typically 154 koz (~10%) less than the quarterly manufacturing for the remainder of the year (Fig. 2).
Seasonality may be exacerbated this year by the automobile recycling supply chain. In 2024, the quarterly supply of recycled autocatalysts fell into the lowest quartile of production over the previous decade.
Even though historical data indicates that recycling usually picks up in the year's final quarter, the Q4 2024 platinum supply is predicted to rise by 32% QoQ. If Q4 2024f follows historical quarterly seasonality, the supply for 2024f could be about 50 koz less. The recycling supply's continued difficulties may also cast doubt on the prediction that it will grow by 12% year over year in 2025. If recycling volumes in Q4'24 and Q1'25 are lower than anticipated, it may highlight the seasonality of platinum prices from December to February.
Platinum Catalyst Forecast
The catalysts made from the precious metals market are anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.69% between 2024 and 2033. The market is anticipated to rise from US dollars 18.62 billion in 2022 to over US dollars 31.26 billion by 2033.
The market for precious metal catalysts is expanding steadily because of their vital role in several chemical processes, such as pharmaceuticals and petrochemical refineries. Growing environmental regulations are increasing the need for catalysts that reduce emissions and improve reaction productivity.
Improvements in catalyst formulation technology are producing better performance attributes, like increased stability and selectivity in challenging environments. The automotive industry's push for greener technologies is another factor driving up the need for catalysts made from precious metals.
Platinum Price Technical Analysis
In the daily chart of XPTUSD, the recent price showed an extreme corrective pressure as the price is moving within a symmetrical triangle. In that case a bullish pressure might come once a sufficient signal comes about the sell-side liquidity sweep.
In the broader context, the most recent price hovers below the dynamic 200 day SMA and 50 day EMA line signalling a major bearish trend. Moreover, the high volume line since September 2024 is just above the current price, signalling the ongoing bearish trend.
Based on this outlook, a bearish trend continuation towards the 864.75 to 796.14 zone could be a potential bullish opportunity. Moreover, an immediate bullish pressure is also possible, where a daily close above the 200 day SMA could provide another long opportunity. In both cases, the ultimate target for the bullish pressure is to test the 1100.00 psychological line.
On the bearish side, the ongoing downside pressure is present from the 200 day SMA, which might resume the momentum towards the 825.00 area.
