After plunging precipitously, the Wheat price rebounded from the three-and-a-half-month highs. Reports that bad weather could harm Russia’s wheat crop and increased anxiety over supply interruptions after a drone attack at a Ukrainian stream port caused wheat to spike.
Wheat Revenue Performance
After falling last week, Chicago wheat of December aimed lower, while the December SRW futures contracts are expected to see their fifth weekly progress in the last six weeks. Last Wednesday, the most engaged agreement's greatest settlement since June 18 (6.2325) occurred.
Gross U.S. wheat revenue this past week amounted to 443,700 MT, upward of 46% from the median figure for the four weeks prior. Japan led consumers at 170,200 MT, ahead of Egypt's 70,000 MT. Wheat futures contracts fell despite harder-than-expected USDA-stated export revenue.
According to USDA data, cumulative U.S. wheat exports for the 2024–25 marketing year reached 8.026 MMT, an increase of 37% compared to the same time in 2023–24.
Wheat Production Shortage
Worries about production shortages in the world's peak wheat-producing locations may support prices in the short run. Due to poor weather that hindered the harvest, farming consultant Sovecon lowered its projected Russian wheat exports for 2024–2025 from 48.1 MMT to 47.6 MMT earlier this week. The European Commission lowered its production prediction for the EU to a 12-year low a week ago.
Kansas's country and terminal elevators' basis levels remained largely steady on the cash markets. In central locations, country elevators were 54 cents in December futures, while in the northwest, they were 75 cents under. In the northeast, terminal lifts were 55 cents listed below December, while in the south, they were 10 to 40 cents below December.
Wheat Prices Technical Analysis
In the daily chart of Wheat price, the recent price showed a valid bottom from where a decent recovery is visible above the dynamic 100 day Simple Moving Average level.
In the volume structure, the buying pressure is valid as the current level in April 2024 is below the 555.10 support level. As long as the current price hovers above the dynamic support, we may expect the buying pressure to extend.
Primarily, any bullish reversal from the 550.00 to 540.00 zone could extend the buying pressure towards the 680.90 resistance level. However, investors should closely monitor how the price holds the buying pressure above the 100 day SMA line.
A bearish reversal with a daily close below the 550.00 line could lower the price and find support from the 502.00 support level.
