EURUSD

Fundamental Perspective

The EURUSD pair showed volatility throughout the week, briefly climbing to a high of 1.0629 on Friday before settling near 1.0570. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report initially weakened the dollar, but the losses were quickly reversed. Strong labor market data, with 227,000 jobs added in November, exceeded expectations but slightly increased the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Concerns about inflation re-emerged as average hourly earnings outpaced forecasts, adding complexity to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions.

Complementing the NFP data, other indicators reflected a mixed picture. As the ADP report shows, job openings increased in October, but private-sector hiring fell slightly below expectations. Initial jobless claims rose above forecasts, while layoffs increased, hinting at emerging pressures. The ISM Manufacturing PMI suggested resilience with a stronger-than-expected rebound, though the services sector disappointed with an unexpected contraction.

ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted weak near-term growth prospects in the Eurozone but projected a gradual recovery. Inflation is expected to rise temporarily before easing, aligning with targets. The ECB, widely anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points on 12 December, faces additional challenges from political turmoil in France, adding layers of uncertainty to the Euro's outlook as market participants await further clarity.

Technical Perspective

The last weekly candle closed as a doji candle, following a green candle. This reflected a pause in the downtrend, making traders aware of the need to confirm the next price movement to determine adequate trading positions.

The price moved below the EMA 21 line on the daily chart confirming the downtrend, while the MACD indicator reading turns bullish. The Dynamic signal lines create a bullish crossover below the midline, and the green histogram bars above indicate a positive force.

Following the ongoing bearish trend, price action traders may seek to open short-term sell positions, targeting the 1.0342 level.

Meanwhile, the recent price showed a bullish V-shape recovery from the yearly low. In that case, a green candle closing above the 1.0705 level might invalidate the bearish signal and find resistance from the 1.1000 psychological line.

GBPJPY

Fundamental Perspective

GBP/JPY ended the week almost unchanged, reflecting limited directional bias. The pair reached a low near 188.08 and bounced above the opening price by the weekend, showing buy interest. By Friday, however, much of the week's gains were pared back. With minimal UK economic releases next week, attention will centre on Friday's industrial and manufacturing production data to gauge Sterling's outlook.

In Japan, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike later this month have been tempered by dovish remarks from BoJ board member Nakamura on Thursday, raising uncertainty over policy decisions. Key economic updates include third-quarter GDP data early this week, followed by the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index on Friday, offering insights into business sentiment.

The GBP/JPY pair remains below its November peak, highlighting subdued bullish momentum. Both currencies face pivotal moments this week, with economic data and policy developments likely shaping their trajectories.

Technical Perspective

GBPJPY remains below the historic level of 196.00 in the weekly chart; the last candle ended green after five consecutive losing candles, declaring a pause in the short-term downtrend.

The price floating below the EMA 21 line on the daily chart declares bearish pressure. At the same time, the RSI reading supports the bearish pressure where the dynamic line is moving below the midline, edging downside.

Evaluating the current market context, 196.00 seems an adequate level to open short positions as the level previously worked as a barrier for buyers. Sellers can drive the price toward the support near 180.10.

Meanwhile, failure to hold the price above 196.00 would disappoint sellers and trigger the price toward the resistance near 208.12.

Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)

Fundamental Perspective

The Nasdaq Composite reached a historic peak of 19,859.8, buoyed by better-than-expected job growth in November.

Official data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, beating the expected 220,000. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, slightly higher than October's 4.1%. Despite robust job growth, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on 18 December.

Analysts suggest the central bank will likely take a more cautious stance in 2025, potentially forgoing a rate cut in January.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested the Fed may be nearing the point where a slower pace of monetary easing becomes appropriate, emphasizing the importance of aligning policy with the economy's resilience.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the U.S. rose to its highest level in seven months in December, with inflation expectations for the coming year reaching a six-month peak, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

Technical Perspective

The Nasdaq 100 index hit a new ATH in the latest week, declaring significant bullish pressure on the broader index. Overall, the ongoing bullish trend remains intact, leaving buyers optimistic for the upcoming week.

The Parabolic SAR continues creating dots below the price candles, declaring bullish pressure on the daily chart. At the same time, the CCI dynamic line floats above the upper line of the indicator window, edging upside and supporting the extreme bullish pressure.

The current market context suggests price action traders may seek opening long positions near 21,167.13 primarily, whereas more adequate buy positions are near 20,649.74.

Meanwhile, a selling pressure below 20,649.74 might invalidate the bullish continuation and trigger short-term bearish momentum toward the 19900.00 level.

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Fundamental Perspective

U.S. equity markets ended the week with mixed performance as investors assessed the potential for the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle following the expected December rate cut.

Technology and communication services led gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs. Tesla surged 10% amid continued post-election optimism, while Salesforce rose nearly 10% following stronger-than-expected fiscal Q3 revenue.

Meanwhile, Friday's labour data presented a mixed narrative: payrolls increased more than anticipated, with upward revisions for prior months, and hourly earnings outperformed expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher, reflecting slower hiring rather than significant layoffs.

Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December rose sharply to 85% by Friday, up from 71% the previous day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the need for a measured approach, pointing to the economy's resilience. Earlier in the week, the ISM services index reflected continued expansion, albeit slower, while job openings surpassed expectations, highlighting enduring economic strength.

Technical Perspective

The S&P 500 index has rapidly reached the ATH, posting consecutive green candles on the weekly chart and keeping buyers optimistic concerning no sign of bulls.

Extreme bullish pressure is visible on the daily chart through consecutive dots below the price candles, and the Stochastic dynamic line continues above the upper line of the indicator window.

When applying price action concepts, remarkably long positions for professional traders are near 6011.06, which can trigger the price toward the ATH or beyond.

On the other hand, if the price drops below 6011.06, it might invalidate the bullish signal and trigger short-term sellers; it can enable opportunities for buyers from the noticeable support level near  5868.86.

Gold (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Perspective

Gold (XAUUSD) traded in a narrow band near $2,650 last week as markets awaited key data from China and the U.S. to provide a clearer direction. Despite robust U.S. macroeconomic reports, Gold's movement remained muted, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield steady at 4.2% after last week’s decline. The absence of significant geopolitical developments added to the subdued trading environment.

In the U.S., November's ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 from October’s 46.5, and JOLTS data revealed job openings climbed to 7.74 million in October. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the Fed's efforts to manage inflation without harming the labour market. Private-sector employment added 146,000 jobs in November, while ISM Services PMI declined to 52.1 from 56. Later in the week, nonfarm payrolls were surprised with a 227,000 increase in November, exceeding expectations, though the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Despite strong labour data, the dollar struggled to rally, keeping Gold range-bound.

According to analysts, earlier Gold strength was driven by aggressive investor positioning and central bank buying, dynamics that have now diminished. As these factors unwind, the market faces increased vulnerability. Upcoming Chinese trade data and U.S. CPI inflation figures could influence Gold’s next move.

Technical Perspective

Two red candles within the range of the previous green candle reflect consolidation in the weekly chart, indicating mixed signals for precious metal investors.

The price is moving in the upper channel of the Bollinger Bands indicator, signalling that the bullish trend is intact in the daily chart. In contrast, the CCI dynamic line floats near the midline and is edging lower, suggesting fresh bearish pressure.

Considering the current price outlook, upward pressure has remained above the 2605.00 support for ten days. Therefore, the upward continuation might find a primary resistance from 2721.37, followed by the next resistance near 2790.07.

Meanwhile, an immediate bearish pressure below the 2605.00 line might invalidate the bullish signal and trigger short-term sellers. In that case, buyers might watch 2536.89 for price reactions to open adequate long positions as the long-term trend is bullish.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Perspective

Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week near $98,000 after a volatile Thursday that saw it briefly surpass $100,000 before a sharp correction. The rally was driven by strong institutional demand, whale accumulation, and the appointment of pro-crypto Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair. However, concerns over profit-taking and potential large-scale sales from dormant wallets could weigh its momentum.

Whales capitalized on the mid-week dip, with one buyer acquiring 600 BTC worth $58.85 million, bringing their two-week total to 1,300 BTC. Meanwhile, optimism over Microsoft's potential inclusion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet added to the bullish sentiment, with a shareholder vote set for 10 December.

However, caution remains warranted. Profit-taking indicators spiked mid-week, mirroring patterns that previously triggered corrections. Large wallet movements, including 24,052 BTC from Mt.Gox and 10,000 BTC tied to U.S. government holdings, could amplify selling pressure and weigh on market sentiment.

Technical Perspective

Bitcoin hit ATH above the $100,000 mark, as many experts anticipated. The last candle has a small green body with wicks on both sides after a hammer with a red body and lower wick, reflecting a slower pace than the previous solid long green candles on the weekly chart, but the trend remains intact.

On the daily chart, buyer domination on the asset price is visible as the price moves with the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator. In contrast, the MACD indicator reading is bearish, with the dynamic signal lines creating a bearish cross. Red histogram bars are visible below the midline at the indicator window, leaving mixed signals as the price has already hit ATH.

According to price action concepts, adequate buy positions are near 91,468 as the price can decline due to distribution after reaching the previously anticipated 100,000 mark.

Meanwhile, if the price declines below 91,468, it might invalidate the bullish signal and attract short-term sellers toward 86,963. For accumulation purposes, the decline could extend further toward the yearly range high of 71,652.

Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Fundamental Perspective

Ethereum (ETH) crossed $4,000 on Friday for the first time since March, driven by strong institutional demand and record ETF inflows.

According to Coinglass, Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest single-day net inflows of $428.5 million on Thursday, marking nine consecutive days of positive flows and pushing total inflows beyond $1 billion since their inception.

Since the U.S. elections, Ethereum has consistently outperformed Bitcoin. This momentum strengthened after SEC Chair Gary Gensler announced his retirement on 20 January. Bybit's 5 December "Volatility Review" report noted a significant shift in investor allocation, as reflected in the ETH/BTC ratio rising from 0.31 on 19 November to over 0.4 by Friday.

The weakening of Bitcoin's dominance alongside Ethereum's surge has fueled speculation about the emergence of an altcoin season. With growing institutional interest and an evolving market landscape, Ethereum continues to cement its position as a preferred cryptocurrency for diversification and investment opportunities.

Technical Perspective

ETH reached the yearly peak on the weekly chart, posting consecutive green candles. This reflected significant bullish pressure on the asset, leaving buyers optimistic.

The price is moving along with the upper band of the Bollinger band indicator at the daily chart, reflecting extreme bullish pressure on the asset price. The RSI indicator reading supports the trend through the RSI dynamic signal line floating above the upper line of the indicator window.

Evaluating the market context using price action concepts, the price hit and is floating at an adequate sell zone below 4071.46. This level previously worked successfully as a barrier for buyers, which can drive the price toward the primary support level near 3375.39.

Indicator data from the Bollinger band and RSI also support this bearish signal, as both indicators show the price reaches an overbought condition, which might trigger the price to retrace for accumulating more bullish pressure to break out the resistance.

Meanwhile, a successful breakout or a solid green candle closing above the resistance of 4071.46 will invalidate the bearish and might trigger buyers toward the ATH near 4867.81.

Nvidia Stock (NVDA)

Fundamental Perspective

In recent years, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has become one of the most closely watched stocks. Initially known for producing chips that enhanced video game graphics, Nvidia's graphic processing units (GPUs) are now essential for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure due to their superior processing power and energy efficiency compared to traditional central processing units (CPUs). This shift has positioned Nvidia at the forefront of AI innovation.

Nvidia established a significant competitive edge early by creating CUDA, a proprietary software platform that allows developers to program directly for its GPUs. CUDA became the industry standard for GPU programming, cementing Nvidia's leadership.

As AI has rapidly expanded the demand for GPUs, Nvidia has maintained an impressive 90% market share, underscoring its dominance in a field filled with developers.

Despite its dominance and substantial stock price appreciation, Nvidia remains attractively valued. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 31, based on 2025 analyst estimates, and boasts a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio near 1. Given that growth stocks often carry PEG ratios well above 1, Nvidia’s valuation suggests it may still offer significant upside, even after years of remarkable growth.

Technical Perspective

The latest weekly candle closed with a green body and an upper wick, reflecting positive pressure on the asset price and keeping buyers optimistic for the upcoming week.

The price is moving above the green cloud of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, indicating an active bullish trend. The CCI reading is neutral, as the dynamic line edge is lower near the midline of the indicator window, suggesting a pause in the current uptrend.

Based on this, buyers might seek to open adequate long positions between 132.10 and 139.71, which can trigger the price toward the ATH of 152.89 or beyond.

Meanwhile, a failure to hold the price above the 132.10 level could disappoint buyers, sparking short-term selling opportunities toward 118.51.

Tesla Stock (TSLA)

Fundamental Perspective

Tesla (TSLA) has soared over 40% since Donald Trump's election victory, driven by expectations that regulatory easing could accelerate the adoption of self-driving vehicles. With the stock consolidating near record highs, investors are weighing the best moments to buy or sell.

On Thursday, Bank of America analyst John Murphy raised his price target for Tesla from $350 to $400, reiterating a buy rating. After visiting Tesla's Texas gigafactory, Murphy highlighted the company's strong position in its electric vehicle business, the anticipated robotaxi launch, and the long-term potential of its Optimus humanoid robot project. He noted that Optimus is "real," with development poised to advance significantly.

Amid these developments, Trump's proposed tariff increases on trading partners have sparked broader market concerns. Tesla investors remain focused on how regulatory changes and trade policies may shape the company's growth trajectory.

Technical Perspective

TSLA stock price is soaring to reach the ATH near 414.50 at the weekly chart as it continues posting consecutive green candles despite red candles; the last solid bullish candle confirms the robust positive force on the asset price.

The price continues on an uptrend on the daily chart as the parabolic SAR dots appear below price candles. Also, the MACD window confirms the trend through a bullish crossover between dynamic signal lines with a green histogram.

According to this price action, sellers might observe the price reaction near the 402.50 level, the previous resistance level after the ATH in November 2021. This level can drive the price toward the 340.77 area for accumulation purposes.

On the other hand, a breakout above the ATH of 414.50 can spark buying opportunities toward a new ATH.

WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD)

Fundamental Perspective

Crude oil continued its slide throughout the week, dropping further below $68.00 as selling pressure mounted after OPEC+ confirmed a three-month postponement of its output normalization schedule. Although the decision aligned with market expectations, it was widely viewed as insufficient to address the ongoing supply surplus that has saturated the market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) softened following the release of the November Jobs Report, which showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 227,000. Also, investors' attention was turned to remarks from four Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to provide further insights into the direction of monetary policy.

On the geopolitical outlook, Russia resumed oil flows to the Czech Republic via the Druzhba pipeline in the energy sector, as confirmed by Orlen SA. Meanwhile, OPEC+ noted potential impacts from anticipated U.S. sanctions under President-elect Donald Trump targeting Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports, which could reduce oversupply pressures.

Market attention also turns to the Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count, expecting a slight increase from 477 to 478 later on Friday.

Technical Perspective

Since mid-October, crude oil prices have been moving sideways from 71.09 to 66.72. The weekly chart reflects a consolidating phase and indecision. The price beyond this range may indicate further price direction.

The price is moving on a downtrend as it floats below the EMA 21 line, indicating seller domination. At the same time, the CCI reading remains neutral, with the dynamic signal line reaching below the lower line of the indicator window.

Combining all these, traders might observe the range low near the 66.72 level before opening precious long positions. The price has bounced back from that level several times and worked as a seller barrier since mid-September, which can trigger the price toward the range high of 72.09.

On the other hand, the yearly support of 65.27 could be a crucial level to look at as breaking below this line might decline the price toward the 63.64 line.

 
*Disclaimer: The content of this article is for learning purposes only and does not represent the official position of VSTAR, nor can it be used as investment advice.