The futures market's Open Interest (OI) for Toncoin (TON) recently fell to $141 million, the lowest level in the previous nine months. However, the technical chart shows a sign of recovery, where a solid bottom is present.
Toncoin (TON) On-chain Metrics Analysis
Open interest, which represents the entire amount of outstanding futures agreements, is one of the most important measures of market mood and liquidity.
According to recent statistics, a decline in OI often indicates less market activity and fluctuation. This drop in OI indicates a time of relatively low volatility as the calendar year comes to a finish, reflecting larger patterns in the bitcoin market.
A discernible drop in TON's value and user activity occurs at the same time as the dip in its open interest. According to Artemis statistics, there have been notable swings in the cost of Toncoin over the past three months.
It first experienced a decline, falling from peak values of about $7.2 to close to $5.6 as the monitored period came to an end. Alongside this decline, the number of daily addresses in use dropped precipitously, from 2.4 million to roughly 327K.
It's interesting to note that daily active addresses dropped out as the price normalized, suggesting a possible mismatch between price fluctuations and user involvement. This implies that elements like network utility or outside market effects, in addition to pricing, may have an impact on user behavior. Notwithstanding these oscillations, the TON network's resiliency indicates the fundamental ecosystem's long-term vitality.
TON Bull Cases
Because of its tight connection with the Telegram mini-app ecosystem, Toncoin's future appears increasingly bright, even beyond price fluctuations and trade activity. Due in large part to the adoption of Tether's USDT, TON has experienced tremendous growth over the previous year, topping a billion dollars in stablecoin value. More than $247 million in Total Value Locked (TVL) is being held in the network's expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) field, which further demonstrates its success.
Telegram's enormous user base—more than 5 million people use its mini-apps, such as Notcoin (NOT), every day—also helps TON's ecosystem. As Telegram keeps growing its user base and improving its financial results, Toncoin stands to gain from more people using it.
Due to a spike in premium users, Telegram achieved revenue for the very first time in 2024. The future of Toncoin appears bright, as CEO Pavel Durov has reported record profits and significant financial reserves.
Toncoin Price Prediction Technical Analysis
In the daily chart of Toncoin price, the recent price showed a potential bullish reversal from the crucial discounted zone, signaling a trend reversal.
In the tradable range, the 4.800 is a crucial bottom from where a potential V-shape recovery has come. Following the price reversal, the latest daily candle has come above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average.
Moreover, the high volume line since the inception is below the current price, which signals a confluence bullish factor.
Based on this outlook, the price is likely to move higher and find resistance from the 7.210 resistance level soon. However, a failure to hold the price above the 50 day EMA line could limit the gain and lower the price towards the 5.250 static level.
