Oracle is expected to release its first-quarter fiscal revenue report following Monday's market close.
Oracle Stock (ORCL) Earnings Projection
Analysts surveyed by FactSet predict the cloud software supplier will report a $2.65 billion profit for all three months ended August 31. That represents an increase over the $2.42 billion for the exact time last year.
If one takes out one-time expenses, Oracle is predicted to report $1.33 per share in earnings. It is anticipated that revenue will increase from $12.45 billion to $13.23 billion in the same period last year.
Oracle Earnings Review
Oracle stated that its net income for the most recent fiscal year, which ended on May 31, increased 39% year over year to $11.8 billion. This was slightly less than the trailing four quarters (T4Q) FCF of $12.358 billion from the previous quarter, as observed in the table below.
Yet increased capital expenditures accounted for the majority of the decline. However, its $11.8 billion in free cash flow (FCF) for the most recent full year accounted for 22.3% of the company's $52.96 billion in earnings.
Analysts Projection On ORCL
Analysts predict that revenue will increase dramatically throughout the next two fiscal years. According to Seeking Alpha's poll of 29 analysts, revenue for the fiscal year ending in May 2025 is expected to average $57.92 billion, representing an increase of +9.365% over the previous year's $53 billion. Furthermore, they project $64.26 billion in revenue for the upcoming year, translating into a median run rate of slightly more than $61 billion ($61.09 b) throughout the following calendar year.
Implementing a 22.3% FCF financing to this revenue estimate thus yields an anticipated free cash flow of $13.62 billion. Thus, the company's free cash flow (FCF) could increase by more than 15.35% based on the $11.8 billion trailing cash.
ORCL Stock: Key Concern
A major concern for Oracle is the extent to which artificial intelligence will propel the company's expansion over the upcoming quarters. Over 30 agreements worth over $12.5 billion were awarded to Oracle in the most recent quarter. OpenAI chose the company to execute deep learning and artificial intelligence tasks on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Positive factors for the company include its collaboration with Microsoft Azure, the increasing acceptance of generative AI workloads, and on-premise migrations.
Investors will closely monitor the company's prospects since the previously released full-year 2026 direction indicates a double-digit top-line revenue growth will resume. In June, Oracle's Chief Executive Safra Catz stated that she anticipates increased demand driving the company's earnings and queues, with growth picking up speed during this fiscal year.
Further details about the company's intention to relocate its corporate headquarters to Nashville, Tennessee, to be nearer to healthcare organizations, may be found in the report. In 2021, Oracle placed a significant wager on the healthcare industry when it acquired Cerner, a provider of electronic health records, for almost $30 billion.
ORCL Stock Forecast Technical Analysis
In the daily chart of ORCL stock price, a prolonged buying pressure is seen from November 2023, following a bullish double-bottom breakout. Since then, the price has kept moving higher until a profit-taking came in July 2024.
After forming a top at the 146.64 level, the Oracle stock price showed a decent bearish recovery of 14.15% and tested the support at the 125.75 static level. As the price formed a bullish V-shape recovery from the bottom, we may expect the buying pressure to extend.
In the institution's activity, the largest volume level since November 2023 is at 139.85 level, which is below the current price.
In this context, a bullish continuation with a daily candle above the 146.00 level could be a potential long opportunity, aiming for the 159.55 resistance level. Otherwise, a downside pressure below the 136.00 level might lower the price towards the 100.00 area.
