Despite the industry-wide challenges, JPM stock's performance in the first quarter of 2024 was remarkable. This time, analysts anticipate that JP Morgan will continue demonstrating strong performance.
JPM Forecast On Interest Income
JPMorgan might show a modest profit due to elevated interest rates. The company is unlikely to have observed a substantial increase in NII despite the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at a 22-year high of 5.25 to 5.5% rates.
The yield curve (inverted) in the quarter ending June and the higher funding costs are anticipated to impact NII's growth. Nevertheless, the lending scenario may have been bolstered by the expectation of the interest rate ease and a stabilizing macroeconomic backdrop. The current estimate for NII is $22.83 billion, which indicates a 4.8% increase.
JPM Revenues from Markets Forecast
In Q2, client activity was satisfactory due to the potential for controlled inflation, a softer economy, and clarity on the interest rate cut path. The consensus estimate for equity market revenues is $2.56 billion, representing a 4.2% increase.
Analysts estimate that fixed-income market revenues are $4.77 billion, suggesting a 3.5% increase.
Forecast for Investment Banking
It is anticipated that JPMorgan's investment banking charge will have been bolstered by a revival in global mergers and acquisitions during Q2 of 2024. Driven by robust financial performance, diminishing recession risks, and buoyant markets, both deal value and volume experienced a rebound.
Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and antitrust regulators' scrutiny posed obstacles. The current estimate for this revenue segment is $2.14 billion, which indicates a 26.6% increase.
JPM Stock Key Financial Metrics
In the first half of 2024, JPMorgan was one of the top three performing banks on the S&P 500 index, along with Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC). All three equities outperformed the S&P 500 index.
Currently, JPM is trading at 12.42 times forward 12-month earnings, which is higher than its five-year median of 11.82 times. The forward earnings multiple of the industry is 11.43 times. Compared to the industry average and the company's range, the company's valuation appears to be somewhat extended.
JPM Stock Forecast Technical Analysis
In JPM's daily chart, ongoing buying pressure is visible. The most recent JPM stock price trades above the 100-day SMA and 20-day EMA lines. In that case, the primary aim for this stock is to find a bullish trend continuation strategy.
On the other hand, the recent high volume line is below the current price, suggesting an ongoing buying pressure from institutions.
Based on this structure, a bullish continuation is highly possible, where the main aim is to test the 215.26 level before aiming for the 230.41 area.
On the bearish side, a failure to hold the price above the 200.00 level could be an alarming sign to bulls. In thatJPM case, a deeper downside pressure might come, where the main aim would be to test the 179.18 support level.
