BYD (BYD) hits new high, while Tesla (TSLA) plummets

In 2025, the global new energy vehicle industry will accelerate its restructuring, and the stock price trends of BYD and Tesla will show a polarized trend. BYD has driven its market value to exceed RMB 1 trillion with its technology accessibility and globalization strategy, while Tesla has fallen into a quagmire of plummeting stock prices due to declining sales, intensified competition and management disputes. This article will conduct an in-depth comparative analysis of stock price performance, driving factors and future trends, and predict the investment value of the two giants based on the latest data and market dynamics.

Stock price performance: ice and fire

1. BYD: Intelligent strategy triggers valuation reshaping

• Market value exceeds one trillion: BYD Hong Kong stocks (H shares) have accumulated a 27% increase in 2025, and the A-share market value has exceeded RMB 1.14 trillion, with an increase of more than 20% this year, setting a record high.
• Core catalyst: The "Eye of God" high-end intelligent driving system launched in February is standard for the entire series, which will transfer technologies such as laser radar and mapless navigation to models priced between 70,000 and 200,000 yuan, directly breaking through the industry's technology premium barrier and driving the market value to grow by 6% in a single day.
• Capital increase: The HK$43.51 billion H-share placement was snapped up by international capital. Citi, Morgan Stanley and other institutions raised the target price to HK$688, optimistic about its dual-wheel drive of intelligence and globalization.

2. Tesla: Sales drag and valuation bubble burst

• 13.4% plunge this year: As of March 2025, Tesla's stock price fell 13.4% from the beginning of the year, with a single-day drop of 15% on March 10, and a market value of more than 900 billion yuan evaporated, the largest drop since 2020.
• Core contradiction: In 2024, global deliveries fell by 1.1% year-on-year, the first decline in ten years; China's sales plummeted by 33%-50% month-on-month, and sales in many European countries were halved (such as Germany -60%, France -63%).
• Valuation risk: The price-earnings ratio is as high as 104 times, far exceeding the industry average. If the performance in 2025 does not meet expectations, the market value may further shrink to US$630 billion.

Differentiation logic: technology universalization VS strategic loss of focus

1. BYD: Technology sinking and globalization dual-wheel drive

• Intelligent driving revolution reshapes the industry: The "Eye of God" system is standard for all series, and the cost of self-developed intelligent driving is 30% lower than the industry, which will drive China's new energy vehicle penetration rate to exceed 60% in 2025 and accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles.
• Global production capacity layout: European sales surpass Tesla (such as the UK's growth of 551%), the Mexican market target is 80,000 vehicles, Brazil and Hungary factories are put into production, and the ro-ro fleet improves delivery capabilities.
• Cost advantage: Blade batteries and DM-i hybrid technology reduce manufacturing costs, 70,000-class models achieve high-level intelligent driving, and form a "technological universalization" moat.

2. Tesla: Product aging and strategic disputes

• Declining product competitiveness: Model 3/Y upgrades lag, Cybertruck has overcapacity, and the design adjustment of the new version of Model Y cannot hide its lack of innovation.
• Management risks: Musk's involvement in political disputes (such as supporting Trump's tariff policy) and multi-line investment (failed acquisition of OpenAI) disperse resources, triggering a crisis of confidence among investors.
• Policy impact: US steel tariffs increase production costs, intensified competition in the Chinese market, and FSD technology encounters obstacles in China due to data compliance issues.

Trend forecast: Intelligent competition and valuation regression

1. BYD: Short-term high growth and long-term risks coexist

• Growth momentum: Global deliveries may reach 5 million to 6 million vehicles in 2025, and overseas sales will account for 20%; Mexico and Southeast Asian markets may contribute to new growth.
• Technology iteration: Cooperate with DeepSeek to develop AI algorithms, and the vehicle-mounted drone system may open up a new scenario of "low-altitude economy".
• Risk warning: Aggressive expansion may lead to rising debt ratio (debt ratio exceeds 70% in 2024), and it is necessary to balance market share and profit margin.

2. Tesla: Life and death transformation and valuation reconstruction

• Short-term pressure: If the sales volume does not reach the target of 2 million vehicles in 2025 (the current production capacity gap is about 20%), the price-earnings ratio may approach the industry average of 18 times, and the stock price may fall another 47%.
• Transformation key: The landing of FSD V12 and the mass production of Cybercab in 2026 are the core hopes, but technology iteration needs to overcome data compliance and computing power bottlenecks.
• Geopolitical risk: Trump's tariff policy may make Tesla a victim of the trade war, and overseas factories (such as the Shanghai Super Factory) face policy uncertainty.

Conclusion: Investment choice under the reconstruction of industry logic

The stock price differentiation between BYD and Tesla is essentially the result of the competition between "technology inclusion" and "innovation stagnation". BYD is making the transition from "Made in China" to "Global Smart Manufacturing" through the penetration of intelligent driving technology and global layout; while Tesla is in a passive defense due to weak product iteration and management disputes.

• BYD: In the short term, pay attention to overseas market penetration (such as European market share exceeding 15%) and profit margin changes, and in the long term, verify the commercialization capabilities of AI technology.
• Tesla: Focus on the progress of FSD landing and mass production of low-priced models (30,000 US dollars Model 2). If the transformation fails, the valuation may collapse further.

In the coming year, the investment logic of the new energy vehicle industry will shift from "electrification penetration" to "smart pricing power competition". BYD may continue to lead, while Tesla's rebound needs to rely on disruptive innovation and strategic focus. Investors need to be wary of technology iteration risks and geopolitical disturbances, and dynamically adjust their allocation strategies.

^{*Disclaimer: The content of this article is for learning only, does not represent the official position of VSTAR, and cannot be used as investment advice.}