In recent years, Alibaba (BABA)'s stock price has experienced ups and downs, especially against the backdrop of regulatory pressure and market adjustments, the company's stock price has experienced a certain degree of correction. However, with the recovery of the Chinese economy and the gradual effectiveness of Alibaba's strategic adjustments, Alibaba's stock price has ushered in a rebound. So, can Alibaba continue to rise by 30% in the future? This article will analyze this issue from both fundamental and technical aspects.
Fundamental Analysis: Alibaba's Growth Potential
China's Economic Recovery Promotes E-commerce and Consumption Upgrading
Against the backdrop of China's gradual economic recovery, the recovery of the consumer market has provided solid support for Alibaba's e-commerce business. According to recent economic data, China's retail industry, especially online retail, has rebounded in growth, bringing strong market demand to Alibaba. As one of the largest e-commerce platforms in China, Alibaba continues to benefit from the continuous expansion of China's middle class and the trend of consumption upgrading. In particular, the success of e-commerce promotion activities such as "Double 11" has proved Alibaba's brand effect and market penetration in the minds of consumers.
Strong growth of cloud computing business
Alibaba Cloud is one of the world's leading cloud computing platforms. Its business has grown significantly in recent years, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where its market share has continued to rise. As digital transformation accelerates, the demand for cloud computing continues to increase worldwide. Alibaba's cloud computing business has gradually transformed from a profit model to an independent business unit, becoming an important engine for the company's future growth. If Alibaba Cloud can continue to expand its market share, especially in the global market, Alibaba's revenue and profit growth potential will be further improved.
Organizational structure adjustment and strategic transformation
Alibaba has made many organizational structure adjustments and strategic transformations in the past few years, including the separation of multiple sub-businesses, such as Alibaba Cloud and Ant Group. These adjustments help improve the company's management efficiency, stimulate the vitality of each business unit, and enhance the market's recognition of its diversification strategy. In addition, Alibaba has actively deployed emerging industries such as digital payment, logistics, and artificial intelligence around the world, further broadening the company's revenue sources and growth points.
The potential of financial technology: Ant Group
Ant Group, as a subsidiary of Alibaba, is one of the world's leading financial technology companies, covering digital payment, consumer credit, wealth management, insurance and other fields. Although Ant Group faces regulatory challenges, its huge user base and strong technical capabilities still bring huge growth potential to the company. As regulatory policies gradually become clear, Ant Group may usher in further development of its business in the future and become an important driving force for Alibaba's growth.
Advancement of internationalization strategy
Alibaba's layout in the international market is gradually accelerating, especially in Southeast Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Through acquisitions, investments and strategic cooperation, Alibaba's market share in these regions continues to expand. With the continuous expansion of the global e-commerce and cloud computing markets, Alibaba's internationalization strategy is expected to bring it new growth points and further support its stock price increase.
Technical analysis: Alibaba's stock price trend
Technical support and resistance levels of stock prices
From a technical perspective, Alibaba's stock price has recently touched a certain support level after a period of adjustment. The current support level is around $120, while the resistance level is between $120 and $130. If the stock price breaks through this resistance level, it may usher in a new wave of rise, and the target price may be further close to $150 or even higher. Therefore, if Alibaba's stock price can break through the technical resistance level and stand firm, a 30% increase is entirely possible.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD Indicators
In terms of technical indicators, Alibaba's relative strength index (RSI) is currently in the 80-90 range, indicating that its stock price is in a relatively balanced state, not overheated, and has not entered the oversold zone. Therefore, from a short-term technical perspective, the stock price still has room to rise. If the RSI continues to rise and breaks through 90, it indicates that the stock price may enter the overheated zone and may face correction pressure.
In addition, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross signal, indicating that there may be momentum for further rises in the short term. If the MACD line continues to rise and gaps with the signal line, this may indicate a further rise in the stock price.
Long-term trend of stock price
From the perspective of long-term trend, Alibaba's stock price has experienced a long period of shock consolidation and is now gradually out of the trough area. If the stock price continues to maintain this upward trend and breaks through the previous high, it is expected to set a new high. Based on the market's confidence in the continued improvement of Alibaba's fundamentals, the stock price is expected to usher in long-term upward space.
Trading volume analysis
Trading volume is an important indicator for judging stock price trends. Recently, the rise in Alibaba's stock price has been accompanied by an increase in trading volume, indicating that market funds are optimistic about Alibaba's future prospects. An increase in trading volume usually indicates the continuation of the trend. If this trend continues, the momentum for stock price increases may be further enhanced.
Conclusion: Can Alibaba rise another 30%?
From a fundamental perspective, Alibaba's strong growth potential in multiple fields such as e-commerce, cloud computing, and financial technology, as well as organizational structure adjustments and the advancement of internationalization strategies, provide solid growth momentum for its future. In addition, with the recovery of China's economy and the improvement of the market environment, Alibaba's performance is expected to continue to grow, and there is a considerable possibility that the stock price will rise by 30%.
From a technical perspective, Alibaba's stock price is already in a key technical range, and the probability of breaking through the technical resistance level and maintaining an upward trend is high. In the short term, the stock price is expected to break through the technical resistance level of $115-$120 and further approach the target price of $130. A 30% increase is not impossible.
However, investors still need to pay attention to the following risk factors: including changes in the macro economy, fluctuations in market sentiment, and the regulatory and industry competition pressures faced by Alibaba. If these factors are not effectively addressed, they may put pressure on the stock price.
In summary, Alibaba's stock price still has a large room for growth with the support of fundamentals and technical aspects, but investors need to pay close attention to market changes and external risks and flexibly adjust their investment strategies.
*Disclaimer: The content of this article is for learning purposes only and does not represent the official position of VSTAR, nor can it be used as investment advice.
